1NEWS, The 2024 legislative elections still have 20 months to go, but the elites of political parties (political parties) are now starting to put their feet up. Political safaris between the general chairmen of political parties and their elites have been rife.
Head of Research and Development Research and Development Sin Po Syahrial Mayus said that currently there were several coalitions formed such as KIB consisting of the Golkar Party, PAN and PPP. Then he said there was a Red Ant Coalition consisting of PKS and PKB. This was done solely to smooth the steps of each party in order to be able to pass the presidential and vice presidential candidates in the upcoming 2024 general election. Especially in order to escape the PT 20 percent trap.
“To answer the question of the map of political parties in order to be able to get tickets to carry the presidential candidate, it must first be seen the composition of the seats obtained by political parties in the DPR RI. Then, they are changed or combined with reference to the 20 percent presidential threshold rule,” said Syahrial Mayus in his written statement here on Monday. Jakarta, Friday (24/6/2022).
Syahrial said that currently, there are 9 political parties with seats in the DPR RI with the compositions, among others; The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) has 22.3 percent of the seats. Followed by the Golkar Party with 14.8 percent, the Gerindra Party with 13.6 percent, the NasDem Party with 10.3%, PKB with 10.1 percent, the Democratic Party with 9.4 percent, PKS 8.7 percent, PAN with 7.7 percent and PPP as much as 3.3 percent.
Referring to the composition of 9 political parties with seats in the DPR RI as above, if they are proportionally combined or in political language commonly referred to as coalitions to produce a composition of 20 percent of seats, the maximum number of coalitions that can be formed is only 4 coalitions. That means, the composition of a coalition of 9 political parties with seats in the DPR RI can only produce a maximum of 4 presidential candidates.
“PDIP no longer needs to be in a coalition with any political party to be able to get a presidential ticket. The current acquisition of PDIP seats is above the 20 percent presidential threshold, which is 22.3 percent,” he said.
“The political parties that have the most opportunity to nominate their own cadres as presidential candidates are the Gerindra Party and the Golkar Party. These two parties only need one coalition partner with political parties with seats in the DPR RI to get tickets for the presidential candidacy, except with PPP,” added Syahrial.
The Gerindra Party, said Syahrial, will benefit the most because its general chairman has the highest electability rate among the others.
“Golkar and Geridra only need one coalition partner to be able to get a presidential ticket, except with PPP. Coupled with Prabowo Subianto’s electability level which is currently still in the top position, it can be concluded that the Gerindra Party has the greatest chance to nominate its own internal cadre in the position as a presidential candidate,” he concluded.
According to Syahrial, the findings are based on the results of the Sin Po Research and Development survey of 1,200 respondents in the period 20 May 2022 – 3 June 2022. The sampling method used is multistage random sampling, with a margin of error of plus minus 2.83% with a confidence level of 95, 0 percent.